SEBI Analyst Sees Potential 30% Downside
The analyst cautioned that a close below ₹126 could confirm the weakness.
Shares of Indian Railway Finance Corporation saw mild pressure on Tuesday after the company signed two major loan agreements worth a combined ₹16,489 crore.
The first deal was inked with Haryana Power Generation Corporation (HPGCL) for up to ₹5,929 crore to support the 800 MW (3rd Unit) supercritical thermal power project at the Deenbandhu Chhotu Ram Thermal Power Plant (DCRTPP) in Yamunanagar.
Separately, IRFC signed another agreement with Maharashtra State Power Generation Company (MAHAGENCO) for up to ₹10,560 crore at its headquarters in New Delhi.
Technical Outlook
SEBI-registered analyst Kush Ghodasara said IRFC’s stock has been “quite volatile” over the past few quarters and is showing early signs of forming a “Head and Shoulder” pattern on the weekly chart.
He noted that the relative strength index (RSI) is currently flat but has an internal crossover, which may indicate a potential move lower. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is below the zero line, which is a sign of low momentum.
According to Ghodasara, a weekly close below ₹126 this Friday would confirm short-term weakness, as it would mark a second consecutive close below the 10–15 WMA range.
A further close below ₹118 in the coming weeks would confirm the “Head and Shoulder” pattern, activating a potential downside target in the ₹85–₹90 zone.
Trading Strategy
Ghodasara said that risky position traders may sell at market price (₹124), target ₹118, ₹108, ₹92, and stop loss at ₹129.
He further said that the overall technical setup is showing weak momentum and traders need to see how the next couple of weekly closes will unfold to confirm the bearish setup.
What Is The Retail Mood?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment was ‘bearish’ amid ‘normal’ message volume.
IRFC’s stock has declined 18% so far in 2025.
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