Will Bulls Defend Or Bears Take Control?

Indian equity markets extended their corrective phase for the third consecutive session on September 23, though the index managed to defend its short-term moving averages. The Nifty index ended a volatile expiry session below 25,200. GIFT Nifty indicates a cautious start to trade on Wednesday.

SEBI-registered analysts shared the trade set-up for September 24 on Stocktwits

Trade Setup

Analyst Mayank Singh Chandel noted that despite selling pressure, the Nifty index held above the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA at 25,150) and 20-day EMA (25,000) on a closing basis, keeping the near-term trend constructive. The formation of a high-wave candlestick on the daily chart signals heightened volatility, but also hinted at a potential reversal if the 25,000 support zone holds firm. 

Meanwhile, momentum indicators are easing. Relative Strength Index (RSI) has come down to 56.79, showing mild weakness.

 Levels to watch: 

• Immediate Support: 25,085 

• Critical Support Zone: 25,000 – a decisive break below this level could invite stronger selling pressure. 

• Immediate Resistance: 25,262 

• Key Resistance Zone: 25,450 – a breakout above this level could revive bullish momentum towards 25,600. 

 Chandel concluded that the Nifty index is at a make-or-break juncture ahead of the monthly expiry. As long as it holds above the 25,000–25,100 zone, dips are likely to attract buying interest. But a rebound towards 25,450–25,600 cannot be ruled out. He cautioned that a breakdown below 25,000 would shift the bias in favor of bears, potentially triggering a deeper correction.

Bharat Sharma of Stockace Financial Services also highlighted that, despite market volatility, the index managed to recover from intraday lows and close above the crucial support range of 25,140–25,150. He added that while this can be considered as a technical pullback in line with expiry-related strategies, market sentiment continues to face headwinds. 

The Indian rupee’s fall to a record low, along with uncertainty surrounding H-1 B visa policies and geopolitical tensions, weighed on the broader outlook. But not all news is gloomy. Sharma also said that there were some domestic bright spots –  strong seasonal demand leading to record-breaking auto industry sales, along with improved PMI and core sector growth data.

On the technical charts, Nifty remains within a retracement phase but continues to respect key support levels positionally. The range of 25,140–25,150 will remain critical; a breakdown of this level may drag the index toward 24,900–25,000. On the upside, wait and watch for a decisive move past the 25,250–25,300 range to confirm a healthy pullback, according to Sharma.

For intraday trade on Wednesday, he identified immediate support at 25,150-25,140.  If this range fails to hold, Nifty may test 25,100, then 25,080, and eventually the psychological 25,000 mark. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen between 25,220 and 25,250. A breach above this zone could open the path toward 25,280, 25,320, 25,360, and beyond 25,400.

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